Here is a quick look at the 'Team Domination' in-play football betting strategy I've recently been testing out. Just as a quick recap, last week (can be found here), I was sitting on a 13.01 points profit with a strike rate of 59.29% using £5 stakes throughout, which resulted in a profit of £65.05 in total. If you remember, my aim for this betting strategy was to increase the strike rate by including some initial research into my decisions (head-to-head statistics and current form) and improving the value of my bets for a higher total points. Here is this weeks results which can be found here.
So what can be taken from this? 55.34% strike rate with 26.38 points of profit. The problem with focusing on value bets in particular (anything over 1.8 odds is my rule of thumb), is that the strike rate will go down as a consequence. For anybody reading that has even a little background with betting, you're probably thinking that's an obvious statement to make, because it is; you're betting on outcomes less likely to happen in the bookmakers eyes. The flip side to this, if you focus too highly on obtaining a high strike rate, you'll end up looking for smaller odd bets which might give you a 0.2-0.5 point profit after your stake deduction. This put that into perspective; for arguments sake, your average betting odds is 1.3 (1.3 deduct the stake, will leave you with 0.3 points of profit). This means, to make any profit whatsoever, you'd have to have a betting criteria in place that meant for every 5 bets you make, 4 of them 5 win, leaving you with 0.5 points of profit. In my eyes, this makes for a really hard uphill battle that you probably won't win. As proven, there is an extra fine line between strike rate, finding value bets and the balance between those two, because even though I had a lower strike rate this week by approximately 4%, I doubled up last weeks profits as a result of finding value bets.
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